Demographic Dividend And Economic Growth Nexus In Asian Countries: Panel Auto Regressive Approach (Var)
Author: Shazia Anwar

This research study highlights the importance of demographic dividends in relation to economic growth by choosing three different emerging South Asian countries. Specifically, we have shown that demographic dividend in terms of increasing working age population in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh contributes to economic growth. In this regard, this research study has two basic objectives which are to examine the relationship between demographic dividend & economic growth and to examine the pass-through channel between demographic dividend and economic growth in context of three South Asian Economies; India, Pakistan and Bangladesh for the period 1980-2019. Most of the studies about demographic dividend have employed time series data using different econometric models such as Iqbal et al. (2015), but in this research study we have used Panel Vector Autoregressive to check the transmission of demographic dividend pass through different channels. While conducting an empirical analysis using panel data methods, initially the unit root was tested using Levin Lin and Chu test and showed that Economic support ratio, Gross enrolment rate, Per capita growth rate and growth of working age population are first difference stationary whereas Per capita income and population are level stationary. Based on Hurlin panel causality test, we can conclude Economic support ratio, does cause Per capita growth rate significantly and Per capita growth rate does not cause Economic support ratio, and thus reveals that there is unidirectional causality. Moreover, Population can cause Per capita growth rate statistically but the converse is not true. It means that there exists unidirectional causality. In the same way, growth rate of working age population causes economic support ratio significantly but there is no reverse causality. Results obtained through impulse response function shows, when there comes one standard deviation shocks to the system, per capita growth rate (PCR) response downward and stays stable in the subsequent periods. Similarly, when there comes one standard deviation shocks to the system, per capita income in log (LPCI) increases from period 1 to period 2 and then stays stable in the subsequent periods. Supervisor:- Dr. Amena Urooj Co-Supervisor:-Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan

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Supervisor: Amena Urooj
Cosupervisor: Saud Ahmed Khan

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