Analysis and Forecasting of Environmental Trend and its Implication for Wheat Yield
Author: Syed Asif Iqbal

The climate change has important and measurable effects in Pakistan. The objective was to forecast the overtime environmental trend in Pakistan with a special reference to GHG emissions and climate change and to analyze the impact of temperature, rainfall and humidity on wheat yield in Chakwal, Jehlum, Mianwali. A time series data from 1971 to 2010 was used for forecasting purpose and a panel data from 1986 to 2010 was used to achieve the second objective. The results of the analysis have shown that the overtime environmental indicators are showing an increasing trend. Furthermore, climatic variables have been found to have significant impact on wheat yield. It was thus concluded that the climate change is the major determinant of wheat productivity. Supervisor:- Dr. Usman Mustafa

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Keywords : Annual Rainfall-Pakistan, CO 2 Emissions Per Capita, Emissions from Solid Fuels, Forecast Evaluation, Holt-Winters Forecasting Model, Trends of Environment-Pakistan
Supervisor: Usman Mustafa

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