Agricultural Trade Policies And Welfare Implications: Pakistan’s General Equilibrium Analysis
Author: Saud Ahmad

In modern integrated world, synthesis of countries for trade is often viewed as a crucial source of income and growth disparities across nations. Well-known channels of economic theory can trace the growth effects of trade. However, there is a substantial conflict among empirical studies regarding gains from agricultural trade especially for developing countries like Pakistan. Therefore, this study examine the economy-wide impact of agriculture trade liberalisation, protection and tariff rationalisation on agriculture production, agriculture trade, income redistribution and public welfare. Moreover, Pakistan agricultural exports are facing many challenges and problems along with trade deficit. For this purpose, particular study also explore potential trade negotiations and estimate export potential for primary and secondary agriculture sectors. An extension of GTAP model known as MyGTAP is employed and the world economy is disaggregated into 20 regions and 13 sectors with Pakistan as a home country. Results explore substantial gains from increased level of protection towards agriculture sector in terms of agriculture production, real factors’ wage, terms of trade and households welfare. Rural households enjoy relatively higher real income and income inequality declines in Pakistan due to agriculture protection. Agriculture sector of Pakistan exhibits improvement in terms of production, households’ income, income equality and public welfare by employing 15 percent uniform tariff across the selected sectors. However, protection and percent uniform tariff result in considerable loss of consumer surplus and said study also point out trade-off between agricultural exports and terms of trade. Finally, we estimated $3873 million of export potential among primary and secondary agriculture sectors of Pakistan. Supervisor:- Prof. Dr. Usman Mustafa Co-Supervisor:-Dr. Muhammad Aamir Khan

Meta Data

Supervisor: Usman Mustafa
Cosupervisor: Muhammad Aamir Khan

Related Thesis​