Yield and Acreage Responsiveness of Chickpea to Climate Change in Pakistan: A District Level Analysis
Author: Roheela Amir

The geographical location of Pakistan is such that it is vulnerable to climatic changes; it is these changes that are an emerging issue in terms of agricultural production. Climate change is the result of increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs). It happens such that these gases trap the sunlight and increase the earth’s overall temperature. This change is altering the yield levels of crops and these effects vary across various types of crops, as the increase in temperature and precipitation agricultural productivity is affected. The current study looks at the impact of climate change on chickpea yield which is the main pulse crop of Pakistan. This research uses fixed effect model to evaluate the yield responsiveness of chickpea to climate change and Arellano Bond GMM estimation technique to estimate the acreage response to climate change. The data used in this study is the annual data for the period 1981 to 2010 pertaining to 15 major chickpea producing districts of Pakistan. The results are suggestive that chickpea yield is more sensitive to precipitation at different phenological stages than temperature. The study found that temperature has positive but insignificant effect on yield of chickpea crop whereas rise in temperature during the flowering/pod setting and maturity stages reduces acreage allocation to chickpea production. The results of estimation reveal that climate change may influence the yield and acreage of chickpea in Pakistan. Therefore, appropriate adaptive and mitigating techniques as well as measures like timely cultivation, better irrigation system and new technology are recommended to cope with or at least to reduce the adverse impact of this newly emerging hazard of global climate change on chickpea yield in Pakistan. Supervisor: Dr. Muhammad Iqbal

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Keywords : Climatic changes, Pakistan
Supervisor: Muhammad Iqbal

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