War, Urbanization and Economic Growth: An Analysis of CO2 Emissions in Afghanistan
Author: Shabir Ahmad

The objective of this study is to investigate the relationship of urbanization, economic growth and war with CO2 emissions in Afghanistan over the period of 1970-2013. An ARDL model has been applied for this study between CO2 emissions, urbanization, economic growth and three dummies i.e. Russian war, Civil war and US intervention. Three separate models have been applied because of dummies, in order to get more specific results. During the era of Russian war, the short run results clearly indicate insignificant but negative relationship. However, in the phase of Civil war, the short run results state that there is significant and negative relationship and the ECM (-1) value calculated is -0.09 which means the speed of adjustment of the variables to equilibrium point is 9.50 percent per year. Further, the development era which started after the US intervention has a divergent relationship as ECM (-1) has insignificant and positive value. On the contrary, there is no long run relationship found in three of these different eras. Supervisor:- Dr. Mohammad Irfan

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Keywords : ARDL and Afghanistan, Civil war, CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth, Russian war, Urbanization, US intervention
Supervisor: Muhammad Irfan

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