Volatility Transmission From Oil Market To Industry Returns. An Evidence From DCC & ADCC Garch Model
Author: Muhammad Inam Ullah

The aim of this analysis is to scrutinize the gains and variability surplus amongst global oil rates as well as the gains of 11 industries on the Pakistan Stock Exchange on a regular basis from July 1st, 2000 to June 30th, 2019. The approach of this investigation was carried out in three steps: The first component is ARMA GARCH, which measures the average and variability surplus rates from oil sector to various industrial gains.; ARMA-TGARCH and ARMA –EGARCH models are the second part to capture the asymmetric effect of information while dynamic tentative correlation (DCC) and the asymmetric dynamic tentative correlation (ADDC) approaches are the third part to measure dynamic correlation amongst oil rates and industrial gains. The conclusion of the estimates reveals that there are no average surplus consequences of oil market volatility on cement, Power, fertilizer, automobile, sugar, textile, tobacco and oil and gas sectors. The average equations are also exhibiting that there are negative and momentous average surplus consequences of oil market volatility on the refinery and chemical sectors. Lastly, the average equation illustrates that there is positive and momentous average surplus consequences of oil market volatility on paper sector. Also, it is realized that there are no variability surplus consequences from oil market volatility to chemical and energy sectors, positive variability surplus consequences from oil market volatility to fertilizer sector, negative variability surplus effect from oil market volatility to automobile, paper and refinery sectors but no ARCH consequences existed in case of oil and gas sectors. Ultimately, it is found that nowadays’ instabilities of different sectors profit such as automobile, energy, paper, refinery, fertilizer, chemical, tobacco and oil value gains are responsive to their own respective preceding volatilities. Supervisor:- Dr. Ahmad Fraz

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Supervisor: Ahmed Fraz

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