The Impact of IMF Loans, Programs & Compliance With Conditionality on Economic Growth in Pakistan
Author: Salman Tahir

The Asian IMF Programs of 1997 failed while that of post 2008 recession were a resounding success. Taking idea from this observation the study attempted to look into how IMF Loans, Programs and Compliance with Conditionality affect growth in Pakistan. Both programs and loans are disintegrated because loans capture the money component and programs capture the advice channel through which IMF can influence a country. Taking idea from Dreher (2006) we used a Seemingly Unrelated Regressions model and our results show that IMF has a negative effect on growth in the country. However, it couldn’t be ascertained whether compliance with IMF conditions mitigate this negative association or not since the coefficient was insignificant. Also, it was discovered that as opposed to literature IMF programs in Pakistan usually take place in democratic regimes. One of the major reasons could be geostrategic, as due to Afghan War and Post 9/11 autocratic regimes had huge influx of aid and support from the Western World. Future research should focus on capturing compliance in a better way and how IMF programs specifically target poverty and welfare spending. At large the study focused mainly on IMF and we found that IMF’s policies aren’t any favorable either. But like it is always said the solution always lies within. What could it be? Capital Controls? A national consensus on economic affairs? This is an arena to be assessed in future studies but our policy makers seriously need to give heed to the fact that something novel and different needs to be done now. The oft-repeated going to IMF is like going again and again to the same doctor whose remedy did not work previously Supervisor:- Dr. Ahsan-ul-Haq Satti

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Supervisor: Ahsan ul Haq Satti

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