Planning and Assessment of Water Resource Project in an Uncertain Climate Future: Application of Hydro-Economic Simulation Framework
Author: Saba Batool

In this research we developed an integrated framework for economic assessment. Such assessment of water resource project conducted in the context of climatic and development uncertainties. Two level of simulation forms the framework: the hydrological based on linear regression equation of weir structure; and the economic. The economic aspects utilize the Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques to simulate the net present value of projects given variation in economic model parameters. In this research we include the linkages between climate and the performance of the system: changes in runoff as well as economic changes in the agriculture production. There exist huge uncertainties surrounding the magnitude and the speed of climate change. How such uncertainties change the government project decision by selecting discount rate is the main question addressed in this paper. The research focuses on the various complex aspects relating to water resource planning that lead to tiresome effort in the calculation of net benefits from new investment. This is due to uncertainties relating to climate change and future development prospects. The framework was made operational for a real-world planning application in the six flood dispersal structure project of Baluchistan. A projected climate scenario, drawn to reduce the uncertainty factor from climatic future by utilizing Historical data and generate flow series by using representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The research was then extended to evaluate the costs and benefits of constructing alternative configurations of weir structure project, for four conceivable water withdrawal conditions and a range of climatic scenarios. An approach was in this manner created to analyse the feasibility of project across a range of conditions. Several climate change linkages were found to have important effects on the system and the economics of the project: climate-perturbed runoff because of precipitation changes. Given this large spread and the particularly strong negative effect of reduced (and highly uncertain) runoff in the river, additional sensitivity analyses were conducted over a wider range of inflow changes, including all climate linkages and the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenario precipitation projections. These experiments show that economic outcomes are highly sensitive to changes in inflows. The value of dam is lower in historical condition as compare to the other climatic scenario. The results further indicate failure in sensitivity test analysis to meet the future demand of water in both climatic scenarios. The water balance shows a deficit in historical data as well as in case of high irrigation demand. Climate impact assessment should be a core part of every project that deal with natural resources. Supervisor:- Dr. Aneel Salman

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Keywords : Discounting, Monte Caro Simulation, Nari River, Net Present Value, Representative Concentration Pathways, Uncertainty, Water Resource
Supervisor: Aneel Salman

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