Identifying the Role of Socio Economic Demographic and deterrent variables on crime rate of Punjab
Author: Shahzad Mahmood Jabbar

This study describes the role of various socio-economic, demographic and deterrent variables on crime rate of Punjab. For this purpose current study has estimated a set of four crime equations by taking total crime, property crime, violent crime and murder as a dependent variable along-with the population density, unemployment rate, literacy rate, police strength, conviction rate and number of police proclaimed offenders in a society as independent variables. In this regard study has used a time-series data set of Punjab from the year 1978 to 2012 and Johenson cointegration approach has applied to determine the long run relationship and VECM for the short run analysis of the variables used in this study. Empirical findings suggest that population density has a significant positive and education has a significant negative impact on all the categories of crime in Punjab. While unemployment has a significant and positive impact on total crimes and has a negative impact on rest of the categories of crime. As for as concerned with the law enforcement variables, conviction rate has a strong deterrence effect on murder crime rate and police strength also has a deterrence effect on all the above defined categories of crime other than the total crime. Finally it has been indicated that an increase in proportion of police proclaimed offenders in society has a positive and significant impact on property crime rate of Punjab. Supervisor:- Dr. Hassan M Mohsin

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Keywords : Crime Rate, Crime Rate-Pakistan, Crime Rate-Punjab, Demography, Socio Economic Demography
Supervisor: Hassan Muhammad Mohsin

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