Co-movement Analysis: An Application of ARDL-GARCH Model
Author: Fareeda Rehman

This study traces out the contemporaneous and time lag spillover effect by using ARDL-GARCH model and traces out mean and volatility spillover effects among the commodity, stock and forex markets. Particularly, it explores the contemporaneous and time lag volatility spillover effect, mean and lag mean spillovers among the exchange rate rupee against dollar, KSE 100 index, gold prices per tola in Pakistani rupee, and crude oil prices per barrel in Pakistani rupee. The daily data are used from 3rd Jan 2007 to 29th Nov 2019.The ARDL-GARCH model is used to estimate contemporaneous and time lag spillovers effect and the symmetric GARCH model are used for volatility modeling. The results conclude that the return series of KSE 100, Crude Oil prices has asymmetric effect and Exchange Rate, Gold Prices having symmetric effect. The results of contemporaneous and lag mean spillover effect indicate that there is contemporaneous, and lag means spillover effect between KSE 100 and gold prices. There is lag mean spillover effect from KSE100 to exchange rate, from crude oil to KSE100. There is bidirectional mean spillover effect between crude oil and gold prices, exchange rate and gold prices. There is no mean effect between exchange rate and gold prices, between crude oil and exchange rate, there is no mean spillover effect from exchange rate to KSE 100, from KSE100 to crude oil. There is no lag mean spillover effect between gold prices and KSE100, between crude oil and exchange rate, between crude oil and gold prices, there is no lag mean spillover effect from exchange rate to KSE100, from KSE100 to crude oil prices, from gold to exchange. The results of contemporaneous and lag volatility spillover effect indicate that there is contemporaneous and lag volatility spillover effect between KSE 100 and exchange rate, between crude oil and exchange rate between exchange rate and gold prices ,there is contemporaneous and viii lag volatility spillover effect from KSE 100 to crude oil prices ,from gold prices to crude oil prices. There is no lag volatility spillover effect between gold prices and KSE100, there is no lag volatility spillover effect from crude oil prices to KSE100, from crude oil prices to gold prices. Supervisor:- Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan

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Supervisor: Saud Ahmed Khan

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