Energy Demand And Consumer Welfare In Pakistan
Author: Rubina Ilyas

Pakistan meets nearly one-third of its energy needs through imported energy resources i.e. coal, oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Despite significant investments in energy infrastructure (especially in power generation projects), Pakistan continues to be energy insecure. This dissertation aims to examine Pakistan’s energy demand structure utilizing macro and micro-level data sets. In this regard, three research themes have been investigated. The first essay comprises of an analysis of the demand elasticities of energy sources for different economic groups over a period of 35 years. In addition this essay also examines the possibility of substitution between within energy products as well as between energy and non-energy input factors using a trans-log production function. The second essay focuses on the estimation of the intertemporal patterns of household expenditure for three main energy sources. The price and income elasticities for these energy sources have been computed using Extended Linear Expenditure System methodology to examine the responsiveness of households to price and income changes. The third essay employs the price gap approach in order to assess the potential impact of subsidy removal on electricity consumption by economic sectors. Moreover, it carries out a benefit incidence analysis to determine how successful the policy reform has been in targeting the poor HHs. The results indicate that increasing the energy prices alone may not be effective for energy conservation purposes. The positive substitution elasticity of oil by gas in Pakistan implies that Pakistan can shift its load of power generation from costly oil to natural gas. Moreover, it has been observed that potential energy can be saved by charging tariffs equal to the supply cost of electricity in case of the residential sector.. The government may like to reduce subsidy across the consumption quintiles excepting first and second (the poorest HHs) to improve the country’s budgetary situation without adversely affecting the relatively affluent classes. The benefit incidence analysis shows that charging higher price of energy (electricity) for consumers having a high consumption will reduce the leakage to the rich and it will be possible to improve the benefit incidence for the poor who will suffer if the price of electricity is raised uniformly for all the users. Supervisor:- Dr. Rehana Siddiqui Co-Supervisor:-Dr. Muhammad Nasir

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Supervisor: Rehana Siddiqui
Cosupervisor: Muhammad Nasir

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