Wheat Supply Response in Pakistan
Author: Asim Hussain

Wheat is not only import cereal which used for food, but it is also important in terms of its contribution in GDP and it is biggest crop in terms of its contribution in cropping sector. In recent past government has significantly increased the wheat prices and the objective was to stimulate output. This study has estimated the short run and long run elasticity of wheat by using district level data for wheat production, area and yield in Pakistan by using data 1981-82 to 2013-14. The study has extended Nerlovian model to panel data. Study has used Dynamic panel GMM technique to estimate the short run and long run elasticity of wheat. We found that price of wheat, price of competing crop, price of fertilizer, rainfall and temperature devotions are the important determinates of wheat production, area cultivation and yield in Pakistan. The study estimate that the short run elasticity of wheat production with respect to its own price is 0.25 and long run elasticity is 0.28. The short run and long run elasticity of cultivated area under wheat is 0.11 and 0.29 respectively and the elasticity for yield is 0.13 and 0.19 for short run and long run respectively. Based on findings study suggest that Government should focus on input price policy rather than output price policy. Supervisor :- Dr Usman Mustafa

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Supervisor: Usman Mustafa

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