Urbanization, Unemployment and Property Crimes: A District Level Analysis of Punjab Province
Author: Muhammad Irshad Khan

This study main emphasis is to find empirically the relationship between property crimes with its lag, urbanization and unemployment at district level in the Punjab province. The districts are categorized in to three groups which are Urbanizing (RY Khan, Bahawalnagar, Jhelum, Muzaffargarh, Jhang, Hafizabad, Mandi Bahaud-Din, Nankana, Lodhran, and Sargodha), Urban I (Khanewal, TTSingh, Vehari, Okara, Sargodha, Sahiwal, Gujrat, Sheikhupura, Narowal, Kasur, Pakpattan, Vehari, and Rawalpindi) and Urban II (Multan, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, and Lahore) on the basis of population density which is used as a proxy for urbanization. The population density for Urbanizing districts is 300-600 population per km square while for Urban I and Urban II is 600-900 and 900-1200 respectively. For this purpose this study has estimated three different models to clearly sketch the relationship among the concerned variables. The panel data duration of the concerned variables is from 2007 to 2017. It is collected from various publications of Punjab Bureau of Statistics. GMM is used to get the estimates which show mixed results for the relationship between lagged property crimes and current property crimes. For urbanizing districts it’s negative, for urban I it is positive and for urban II it is again negative. Results for other variables varies. For urbanizing districts unemployment is the main factor responsible for crimes but it has no significant impact on crimes in urban I and urban II districts. In urban I and urban II districts population density is the main factor contributing to high property crimes. Supervisor:- Dr. Attiya Yasmin Javid

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Keywords : GMM, Population density, Property Crimes, Unemployment, Urbanization
Supervisor: Attiya Yasmin Javid

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