Testing Endogeneity of Money Supply: Time Series Analysis
Author: Usman Masood

The conventional doctrine of money supply supports exogenous flow of money in an economy. Simultaneously, it is believed that commercial banks create a large amount of money in circulation instead of central banks issuing currency notes. It is interesting to mention here that the testing the endogenous money supply hypothesis is an infant area, despite the fact the literature is recognizing that the money supply is an endogenous phenomena in the developing economies. The current study is aimed to fill this gap and at finding out empirical evidence of endogenous money supply in the case of economy of Pakistan. In this regard, it seeks to find out evidence of endogenous money supply in the economy of Pakistan and to check the robustness of the contemporaneous correlation of bank credit, financial development and money supply. Particularly, this study uses the ARDL estimators for testing the long-term relationships between variables. A specific path to work in this technique has largely been adopted by the researchers in the field of applied econometrics. Thereby, it follows the standard route. The essential steps of the analysis include, first to test unit root test for the purpose of testing its stationary properties. Secondly, using the ARDL estimators for testing the long-term relationships among the variables. Thirdly, using statistical testing for finding the long-term and short-run coefficients. Lastly, testing stability through CUSUMSQ and CUSUM tests along with checking robustness of the data. In this regard, time-series data analysis has been carried out on these variables for a period of thirty-seven years. The methodology Autoregressive Distributed Lag has been used after testing the stationarity of data. The findings conclusively indicate the existence of endogenous money supply in the economy of Pakistan. The cointegration has been tested statistically through Autoregressive Distributed Lag technique. The findings of the ARDL estimation indicate significant values of money supply M1, monetary base, vii money supply M2, money multiplier of M1, and money multiplier of M2 with regard to Pakistan’s bank credit and gross domestic product in the long-term. These significant results of particular variables show the evidence of endogeniety of money supply in long run in case of Pakistan economy. Supervisor:- Dr. Abdul Jalil

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Keywords : Money Supply, Testing Endogeneity, Time Series Analysis
Supervisor: Abdul Jalil

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