Seasonal Climate Forecast and Farmer’s Adaptation Behavior: Case study of tehsil Athara Hazari, District Jhang, Punjab
Author: Ghulam Jilani

Sustainability of agriculture sector is indispensable. From a beggar to duke, everyone shall need something to stuff their bellies. It has to continue in this manner till the doom’s day. Productivity of agriculture is at risk because of climate variability. Therefore there is a need to cope with these changing scenarios of climate. Solution lies in reduction of factors that cause climate variability and in adjusting the usual farming practices with the climate phenomena. This study proposes adjustment strategies to cope up with the climate variability through adaptation. Adaptation can be implemented through acquiring information of seasonal variability. Seasonal Climate Forecast (SCF) before the sowing season is indispensable for the modern day farming. The suggested channel for dissemination of information regarding SCF is an agriculture extension worker. Accuracy of this probabilistic information can never be ignored. On the basis of technological advancements in metrological sciences, authenticity and accuracy of information is improving day by day in this sector. Another very important factor to truly benefit from adaptation is the correct interpretation of SCF. An extension worker can be very effective in this regard. He can correctly evaluate farmer’s adaptability behavior regarding this phenomenon. Thesil Athara Hazari, District Jhang, Punjab has been selected for this specific study. A total of 267 respondents have been selected for their behavioral analysis. Other tools of study include descriptive statistics, cross tabulations, bar charts, logit and linear models. Results show that farmers want to incorporate this probabilistic forecasted information in their decisions regarding farming practices. Farmers’ seriousness regarding SCF has been examined through their willingness to pay against the dissemination of this information to them at village level. On an average Rs. 95 per household is willing to pay (WTP) for the services of extension worker. About 79 percent of the respondents are WTP for services of extension worker and 88 percent of the respondents are ready to change their farm cropping decisions. According to results farmers are expecting increase in their crop productivity on an average of 6.8 maund per acre. Hence it can be concluded that farmers are willing to pay, willing to change their cropping decisions, willing to adopt new techniques. Only thing is required i.e. policy makers should consider it in their policies. Supervisor: Dr. Rehana Siddiqui

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Keywords : Agriculture, Climate, Jhang, Punjab
Supervisor: Rehana Siddiqui

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