Responsiveness of Fruit Acreage and Yield to Climate Change in Pakistan: A District Level Analysis
Author: Hussun Bano

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on productivity and acreage response of citrus and mango fruits using data of 12 major citrus growing districts and 14 mango growing districts of Pakistan for the years 1980-2010. Fixed Effects Model has been employed to estimate the relationship between climatic factors (i.e. temperature, precipitation) and yield of mango and citrus fruits. Dynamic GMM has been executed to investigate acreage responses of aforementioned fruits. The trends of long run norms of temperature and precipitation are indicative that the climatic variables have observed changes during different stages of fruit growth. The findings of the study are indicative that climatic factors have significant impacts on productivity of citrus and mango fruits in Pakistan. Increase in norm of average temperature during different phenological stages of fruit growth affects citrus productivity in non-linear fashion (with negative linear term). However, insignificant impact of increase in temperature was observed in case of mango productivity. The effects of precipitation on fruit productivity during fruit growth in case of citrus and maturity stage in case of mango were also found significant. The results from dynamic GMM suggest that climatic factors affect acreage allocation insignificantly and differently across various phenological stages of the fruits. Moreover, control variables such as tube-wells, lag of cultivated area, infrastructural variables (road length in KM, number of pickups and trucks available in each district)have positive and significant impacts on productivity and acreage responses of both fruits (mango and citrus). Own price was observed to play either a very small or insignificant role in acreage allocation to production of fruits under study. Supervisor:- Dr. Muhammad Iqbal

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Keywords : Citrus, Climate Change, Dynamic GMM, Fixed Effects, Mango
Supervisor: Muhammad Iqbal

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