Predicting Bankruptcy: Case of Cement Industry in Pakistan
Author: Masood Iqbal

Bankruptcy prediction is one of the challenging tasks for every type of organization in different industries of the world. Asian countries like Sari lanka, India, China and Pakistan used this model many times. Pakistan Cement industry takes large part in the economic development of the economy of Pakistan. Pakistan Cement industry facing many problems like electricity and gas shortage, financial constrains etc. In my thesis I predict bankruptcy in the cement industry of Pakistan and found that there are bankrupt companies in the cement industry of Pakistan. For measuring the financial health of a business firm there are lots of methodologies available. But the Altman’s Z-Score has been proven to be a reliable instrument across contexts. There is evidence that Altman Z-Score model has 76.9% accuracy in bankruptcy prediction of the underlying Business. In my study is examines 18 Cement companies listed in (KSE) Karachi Stock Exchange during the period 2010 to 2014. In this study I used Altman Z-Score model for bankruptcy prediction for five year prior to bankruptcy. Altman Z-Score is the most efficient model used for bankruptcy prediction of the companies. Cement companies financial statements and business recorder is used to collect the data for the year 2010 to 2014. In my study I found that there is 30% companies of the companies is in distress zone, 17 % in gray zone and 53 % is in safe zone. The results of my study can be used by th e management of the companies for financing decisions by portfolio managers and regulatory authorities for investment. The findings of my study can be useful for stockholders to choose investment options,, managers to take 11 financial decision and others to look after their interest in the concern, cement manufacturers, of the country. Supervisor:- Muhammad Ali Kemal

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Supervisor: Muhammad Ali Kemal

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