Modeling And Forecasting Life Expectancy: The Case Of Pakistan
Author: Hafiza Shumaila Hameed

The main purpose of this study is to observe the impact of demographic, economics environmental and health variables influence on life expectancy in Pakistan. In this study I use the time series data for the period 1973- 2016 for experiential analysis. To investigate the integration order of the different variables, the unit root test Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) were used. The study used the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and bound test for test the co-integration for short and long term analysis. In additionally, the model is used to predict life expectancy ARDL and VAR. The results of coinciding trails indicate a long term relationship between the variables as F-statistical value 6.13, which is greater than the upper limit value at 5%. The long and short term model results indicate that life expectancy is negatively related with birth rate, Carbon dioxide, income inequality and mortality, but the statistical relationship is significant only in the long run. Food production has a positive effect on life expectancy only in the long run. Expenditure on health and Schooling have a positive and significant influence on life expectancy both in short and long term, but higher inflation and population growth are inversely associated to life expectancy. As a final point, the increasing urbanization is negatively associated with life expectancy both in short and long term. The measurement of the error correction term (ECM) suggests that system will be converge to the long-term equilibrium in nearly 10 years. Our forecasts suggest that if past trends continue, almost half the Pakistan population will meet the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for Food Production, carbon dioxide emission and urbanization by 2020, a prediction consistent with that made by positively and high life expectancy as compare to previous year. The study suggest on the basis of result that life expectancies in developing country like Pakistan can be significantly developed if proper devotion has been given to the food production increases in calorie intakes and fertility reduction government to extend contraceptive measures to every women in the reproductive age. Supervisor:- Dr. Ahsan ul Haq Satti

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Keywords : Birth Rate, Death Rate, Food Production, Health Expenditure, Life Expectancy, Literacy Rate, Mortality Rate, Population Growth
Supervisor: Ahsan ul Haq Satti

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