Industry level J-curve in Pakistan: New Evidence from Asymmetric Analysis
Author: Mehmood Ul Hassan

This study disaggregated the trade flows to commodity level and investigated the J curve through Asymmetric approach between Pakistan and its major trading partners by covering the annual data from 1980 to 2017. The trading partners included in the study are China, Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, and the United States. The study took 1-digit industries trade balance as a dependent variable while real bilateral exchange rate and real gross domestic product are the independent variables. In order to investigate the J- curve at industry level, both linear & nonlinear ARDL (Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag) models are used. To capture the asymmetry, the study divided the real bilateral exchange rate to two parts; Depreciation/ Devaluation and Appreciations, & separately assessed its impact on industry-level trade balance. The study finds that Nonlinear model offers more evidence in support of the short-run effect of the real bilateral exchange rate and the ‘J-Curve’ than what is offered by the linear model. The study concluded that the effect of devaluation on the industry-level trade balance is very weak and limited to some industries so total reliance on the external policies (devaluation/depreciation) wouldn’t work to bring improvements in the trade balance. Based on the findings, the study derived important policy implications such as the elasticity approach towards the balance of payment is not profoundly effective so the policymakers should look towards the income and monetary approaches as well. secondly, NER devaluation does not always translate into the RER devaluation. Thus a policy of nominal devaluation will only be successful if it translates into real devaluation, which can only occur if the domestic prices do not increase significantly relative to the foreign prices. Supervisor:- Dr. Javed Iqbal Co-Supervisor:- Dr. Ahsan ul haq Satti

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Supervisor: Javed Iqbal

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