Author: Rukhsana Sarfraz


The purpose of the study is to analyze the impact of Income, International inbound Tourism Receipts, Frequency of Flights of air crafts and Airline Deregulation in Pakistan, India, Indonesia and Malaysia on air passenger traffic. Secondary Data for the period from 2000 to 2019 was retrieved from World Development Indicator (WDI) World Bank. Panel Data and Time series analysis were conducted. Panel was comprised of three countries namely India, Indonesia and Malaysia. A separate Time analysis in context of Pakistan was conducted. Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Auto Regressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) Cointegration methods were used for panel and times series analysis respectively. The finding of the study reveals that Income (GDP per capita), frequency of Flights and Airline Deregulation, (AD as dummy variable) are significant in the long run. But in case of Pakistan, Flights and INC are significant in the long run and TR and air Deregulation are insignificant. The current study has also made use of qualitative research design to determine the impacts of Deregulation of Air transport and National Aviation Policy (NAP 2019) on the aviation industry of Pakistan. Interviews (semi-structured) were conducted with Aviation division’s officials. Thematic analysis technique was used. As per the results of qualitative research, Deregulation, open skies policy and sixth freedom of right are not favorable for Pakistan. So these countries namely Pakistan, India, Malaysia and Indonesia should review their policies (regarding Aviation and open skies) and air service agreements so the policies and agreements that have detrimental effect on aviation industry must be identified and amended accordingly. Frequency of flights on domestic and international routes that have potential air travel demand should be increased. Infrastructure, such as airports and landing strips should be remodeled on the basis of Public & private partnership and sector of air navigation and aviation communication (air-to-air, between ground stations, etc.), should be developed and upgraded in order to accommodate the demand for air travel.

Meta Data

Keywords : Air transport, airline Deregulation, Flights, FMOLS and ARDL Cointegration., Tourism receipts
Supervisor: Uzma Zia

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