Impact Of Climate Change On Productivity Of Cotton In Pakistan; A District Level Analysis
Author: Amar Raza

The study analyses the impact of climate change on productivity of cotton in Pakistan using the district level disintegrated data of yield, area, fertilizer, climate variables (temperature and precipitation) from 1981-2010. Twenty years moving average of each climate variable is used against the each cotton yield. Neo-classical production function approach is used to analyze the relationship between the crop yield and climate change. Production function approach takes all the explanatory variables as exogenous so the chance endogenity may also minimize. Separate analysis for each province (Punjab and Sindh) is also included in the study. Mean temperature, precipitation and quadratic term of both variables are used as climatic variables. Since research uses district level data for the analysis, each district has different management and Agro-ecological characteristics, so Fixed Effect Model, which also validated by Hausman Test, used for econometric estimations. The results suggest the marginal negative and significant impact of temperature and precipitation on cotton yield. The induction of Bt. Cotton has positive impact on yield in climate change. The impacts of climate change are slightly different across the provinces—Punjab and Sindh. The negative impacts of temperature are more striking for Sindh. The impacts of physical variables area, fertilizer and technology are positive and highly significant. Educating the farmers about the balance use of fertilizer and generating awareness about the climate change would be executable mitigation strategy to combat this phenomenon Supervisor:- Dr. Munir Ahmad

Meta Data

Keywords : Climate Change, Cotton Productivity, Fixed Effect Model, Linear Effects, Marginal Effects, Production Function
Supervisor: Munir Ahmad

Related Thesis​