ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impact of climate change on major vegetable crop productivity in Punjab and Sindh province of Pakistan. For evaluation, the underlying study used a production function approach using districts level time-series data for the period of 1995 to 2020. Whereas the main objectives of the underlying study are to explore whether climate change is taking place in vegetable growing districts or not. As well as to investigate the impact of climate change on vegetable productivity (Tomato, potato, and onion) in major vegetable growing districts of Sindh and Punjab. The estimated results of the fixed effect model show that climate change is affecting the yield of vegetables significantly in the selected districts of Punjab and Sindh province. However, their impact varies across the different stages of the vegetable crops. Whereas, variation in maximum temperature in the stage of maturity negatively affects the crop yield, while changes in minimum temperature in the flowering time affect the crop yield positively and significantly. This demonstrates that variation in maximum temperature by .01 percent will decline the crop yield by -14.9 percent. In addition, a 0.4 percent variation in minimum temperature in the flowering stage will increase the yield of the onion by 3.06 percent respectively. Moreover, rainfall at the time of maturity also negatively affects crop yield. This indicates that a variation in rainfall in the stage of maturity by .04 percent will lead to affect the crop yield by .07 percent respectively.