Forecasting The Demand Of Crude Oil, Coal And Natural Gas In The Energy Sector Of Pakistan
Author: Hassan Ahmad Nizam


Fossil Fuel related Energy Demand is continuously rising day by day and the reserves of these natural resources are limited so to know the future consumption of these fossil fuels are very important. This study’s aim is to make future projections for the demand of Oil, Coal and Natural Gas in Energy sector using ARFIMA with breaks model for next 9 years. Data is taken from 1981-2021 and Projection period is from 2022-2030. Three different empirical models of Oil, Coal and Natural Gas are estimated. Unit Root test with break is used to check the stationarity, two indicator saturation techniques are used for checking breaks in the data after that empirical models are estimated, and ARFIMA-B modeling is used to make projections for Fossil fuels. The projections show the increasing demand of oil till 2030 with cyclic rate, Gas demand will increase after 2022 till 2030 and Coal demand will increase until 2027. This study gives valuable suggestions for the government to make policies which can help in cheaper energy production and to use alternative sources as a main source rather than Fossil Fuel.

Meta Data

Supervisor: Saud Ahmed Khan

Related Thesis​