Estimating the Long-Run Creditworthiness of Pakistan and the Impact of Global Financial Crisis on the Creditworthiness
Author: Rimsha Karim

This thesis analyzes the long-run creditworthiness of Pakistan and the impact of Global Financial Crisis on the long-run creditworthiness of Pakistan. The external debt of Pakistan was $48 billion at the end of the year 2014 which has raised the concerns of Pakistan’s policy makers and its creditors as to how would Pakistan repay its growing external debt obligations. A creditworthy country ensures that its debt commitments are met according to the original agreement and it is on the path of ever-increasing capital inflows so that the debt servicing does not dry up the resources needed for growing consumption and development requirements of the economy. The analysis is conducted on time series data of the years 1972-2013. Four Probit Models are estimated by Maximum Likelihood Method. Three specifications of Probit Model of long-run creditworthiness of Pakistan are estimated. These alternative specifications are due to measurement of expected net capital inflows/GDP ratio which are current values of net capital inflows/GDP ratio, lagged values of net capital inflows/GDP ratio and a mix of current and lagged values of net capital inflows/GDP ratio. In the first Probit Model only DS/GDP ratio was found to be significantly impacting the long-run creditworthiness of Pakistan, however it was found that with the inclusion of lagged net capital inflows/GDP ratio, both the DS/GDP ratio and INV/GDP ratio significantly impact the long-run creditworthiness of Pakistan. In the second Probit Model, when POP/GDP ratio is included as an alternate to INV/GDP ratio, the expected net capital inflows/GDP ratio, DS/GDP ratio and POP/GDP ratio all significantly impact the long-run creditworthiness of Pakistan. In the x third and fourth probit Model where the dummy variable for Global Financial crisis is used has come out to be insignificant. Supervisor:- Dr. Abdul Qayyum

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Keywords : Global Financial Crisis and Creditworthiness, Long-run Creditworthiness of Pakistan, Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM), Pakistan, Probit Model
Supervisor: Abdul Qayyum

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