Determination of Exchange Rate on the Basis of Monetary, Trade and Foreign Exchange Model
Author: Muhammad Umar Ayaz

Exchange rate plays a vital role for maintaining equilibrium of balance of payment within country. The stable exchange rate is key for sustainable growth. This study has constructed a specific model for determination exchange rate of Pakistan with UK, USA, Japan and Euro Area by using Hendry General to Specific approach. Monthly time series data is taken for this study from 2000:1 to 2018:5 and determinants of monetary, trade and foreign exchange reserves model includes real output differential, real money differential, real interest differential, price differential, imports, exports and foreign reserves. The existing long run relationships among variables have been observed by Johenson and Juselious (1992) cointegration technique. While the error correction model (ECM) is applied for estimating short run relationship. The results suggest that all variables has significant role in all cases except Pak-Euro. In case of Pak-Euro, real money differential, real interest differential, exports and imports are dropped from model because they are insignificant and are not playing any role in the model. On the basis of results, it is suggested to maintain money supply and to increase foreign reserves in order to improve the exchange rate. Supervisor:- Dr. Hafsa Hina

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Keywords : Determination of Exchange Rate, Exchange rate, Foreign Exchange Model, Monetary, Trade
Supervisor: Hafsa Hina

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