Demand And Supply Projections For Food Grains In Pakistan: 2015-2030
Author: Maqsood Aslam

This study presents projections for demand and supply of food grains (wheat and rice) for 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 as these are the two main staple foods for majority of Pakistani population. The LA-AIDS model is used to calculate expenditure elasticities of different food groups by taking HIES data set (2010-11). By using the estimates the demand for food grains is projected under different scenarios: pessimistic, businessas-usual and optimistic. The supply of food grains is projected by Cobb Douglass production function using time series data (GOP, 2010-11) on agriculture variables. The results of this study show that there will be demand and supply gap (deficit) for the wheat and it will be mainly due to increase in population and economic growth. Other factors important to determine food demand are urbanization and income distribution. There will be surplus in case of rice but it will reduce year by year resulting in reduction of rice‟ exports in the years to come. There will be deficit of 12978 thousand tons for wheat while surplus of 1094 thousand tons for rice when the population and per capita income will grow at the rate of 2 percent, 3 percent and 4 percent respectively, in 2030, due to increasing population and economic growth. To cope with projected deficit the findings of this study recommended to formulate food production policy based on investment in R&D for provision of improved inputs (seed, fertilizer, technology and pesticides) along with construction of new water reservoirs for area expansion in long run. Supervisor:- Dr. Zahid Asghar

Meta Data

Keywords : Demand And Supply, Food Grains, Food Grains-2015-2030, Supply Projections
Supervisor: Zahid Asghar

Related Thesis​