Analyzing the Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Acreage and Yield Responses in Barani Area of Punjab
The present study analyses the impact of climate change on wheat acreage response and wheat yield in Barani Punjab. This research uses fixed effect model to evaluate the yield responsiveness of wheat to climate change and Arellano Bond GMM estimation technique to estimate the acreage response to climate change. The data considered for this study is the annual data from 1981 to 2010 for Barani four districts of Punjab. The significant impact of climate change on wheat area is observed. The study shows different impacts of climate change in each phenological stage for wheat acreage responsiveness. The results indicate that wheat area is sensitive to temperature at sowing stage, and precipitation at pre-sowing stage has negative relation with wheat area. Wheat area has significant positive relation with own price and negative relation with competing crops price. Fertilizer prices also effect acreage allocation of wheat crop. The result for wheat yield showed that wheat crop is more sensitive to temperature at sowing stage, while temperature in January and February enhance wheat productivity. Precipitation normals have positive impact on wheat yield. The results reveal that climate change may influence the yield and acreage of wheat in Pakistan. Therefore, appropriate adaptive and mitigative techniques as well as measures like timely cultivation, better irrigation system and new technology are recommended to be evolved to cope with hazards of global climate change on wheat yield in Pakistan. Supervisor:- Dr. Munir Ahmad
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