An Empirical Analysis of Passenger Rail Demand in Pakistan
Author: Altaf Hussain

This Study Identifies The Major Determinants Of Passenger Rail Demand Along With Forecasting Performance Of Pakistan Railways. The Data Set Covers Annual Observations Over The Period From 1980 To 2012. To Examine The Association Between Passenger Rail Demand And Its Determinants In Both Dynamics, The Ardl Model Has Been Used. We Have Compared Forecasting Performance Of Univariate Arima And Multivariate Ardl. The Passenger Kilometers (Pkm) Is Our Variable Of Interest Whereas The Explanatory Variables Are Total Population, Gdp Per Capita, Domestic Diesel Oil Prices And Fare. The Findings Of This Study Indicate That The Gdp Per Capita And Population Plays Pivotal Role For Increasing Passenger Rail Demand Whereas Fare And Domestic Diesel Oil Diminishes The Demand. The Results Postulated That Ardl Is More Precise Than Arima Setting For Forecast. The Performance Of The Predicted Models Is Assessed Based On Mean Absolute Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error And Root Mean Square Error. On The Basis Of Results Government May Adopt Policies For Enhancing Gdp, And Generating Alternative Resources For Reducing Fare And Diesel Oil Prices. Supervisor:- Dr. Saqlain Raza

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Keywords : ARDL, ARIMA, Econometric Analysis, Forecasting, Passenger Rail Demand
Supervisor: Saqlain Raza

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