An Economic Analysis Of Forestation In Pakistan
Author: Sara Rahman


Kuznets curve hypothesis holds a non-linear relationship between growth and the environment that is a country in the initial stages of growth deteriorates the environmental assets but after reaching a maximum threshold level economies divert resources to environmental protection and improves their relationship with the environment such as in Pakistan an attempt was made to preserve the environment by initializing a billion tree plantation drive that is Billion Tree Afforestation project. This thesis is an attempt to reconnoitre the Kuznets curve hypothesis whether the situation which it stipulates holds in a less developing country like Pakistan and does the initiative of the billion tree project has any impact on the environmental condition of the country? In this regard, this study used the Auto regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique to check for the existence of the Kuznets curve and the effect of the Billion Tree plantation drive on the environmental quality and therefore used two models with deforestation and forest cover as two response variables. Using 29 years of data from 1990 to 2019 obtained from the World Development Index WDI, The Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database FAOSTAT, and the billion trees afforestation BTAP as a dummy variable, the results indicate that the Kuznets curve is not applicable in Pakistan in the case of deforestation as a response variable and in the case of forest cover, it is applicable in the short run only. Whereas The Billion Trees Afforestation Project BTAP is shown to have no effect in both models, and this is because all of these trees are in the growth stage, and secondly, all these plantations are carried out on a negligible portion of the country, hence has no significant impact on the overall level of the country’s environmental condition. The policy’s implication thus implies taking appropriate measures for the mass plantations like BTAP throughout the country for the sustainability of forests to recover and protect the environment.

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Supervisor: Muhammad Nasir

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