Abstract

Early Childhood Education (ECE) has increasingly been identified as a crucial investment in human capital development, enhancing school readiness, and promoting long-term outcomes in education. Global studies, such as Heckman’s theory of human capital, focus on the fact that investments in the earliest years produce the greatest economic and social returns. In Punjab, Pakistan, significant investments in ECE have been made over the past decade, supported by international partners such as UNICEF, UNESCO, and the World Bank, and institutionalized through the Punjab ECE Policy 2017. Despite these commitments, limited evidence exists regarding the policy’s effectiveness, quality of implementation, and contribution to meeting Pakistan’s Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG-4) obligations.

This analysis assesses the effects of the Punjab ECE Policy 2017 on early grade performance, specifically Grade 1 retention through Grade 3. Employing a large-scale longitudinal sample of more than 240,000 school-year observations for 2018–2022, (with more than 105,000 schools from 2016-17) and employing doubly robust regression analysis (Inverse Probability Weights with Fixed Effect) in addition to propensity score matching, the analysis estimates both the provision of ECE interventions (classrooms, trained teachers, caregivers, and equipment) and the quality of their implementation according to policy standards.

The study finds that the availability of ECE classrooms and trained teachers significantly improves Grade 1 retention up to Grade 3. Quality implementation through dedicated classrooms, trained teachers, and adequate materials drives stronger results, further supported by school infrastructure like water, electricity, and internet access. The Punjab ECE Policy 2017 positively influenced early-grade access and persistence, though unevenly, depending on implementation quality and infrastructure.

The study recommends expanding ECE classrooms, strengthening teacher training, ensuring learning materials, and improving infrastructure. Overall, it emphasizes institutionalizing quality ECE across schools to achieve inclusive, sustainable progress toward SDG-4.